Indian Occupied Kashmir(IOK) is on the boil again. Like a volcano it erupts periodically. The response from both antagonists (Pakistan & India) is mired in familiar standardization - same rhetoric, same drama, same calls to the International Community for intervention, same threats. There has been no original, breakthrough, "out of the box" thinking. This time it's different - involving ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity.
The partition of Kashmir emerged from very unique, little known circumstance. Lord Mountbatten was dispatched to India with a specific mandate - "Settle the partition issue as quickly as possible, and get Britain out". Viceroy Mountbatten was not given enough time to evaluate, analyse or strategize the most important geo-political event of the time. It so happened that Pundit Jawaharlal Nehru (a Kashmiri janeu dhari Brahmin) and Edwina Mountbatten, the viceroy's wife, became ardent lovers. Known and encouraged by the viceroy. As Mr. Jinnah drew circles around the Congress party because of his political dexterity, Nehru made Edwina promise that, come what may, she will prevail upon the viceroy not to allow accession of Kashmir to Pakistan. What followed is known and recorded. In the ultimate division of Kashmir, Edwina was the Queen, the rest were just pawns.
After IOK emerged, India made its first strategic blunder. Instead of welcoming the population, mostly Muslim, India started a regime of hate, suppression, isolation and disenfranchisement. This is despite the various UN resolutions of 1948, and Article 370 of the Indian Constitution. Instead, India should have, if they had any political and strategic wisdom, started a Kashmir 'Marshall Plan'. They should have invested heavily in IOK - building mosques, schools, hospitals, roads, railways, creating jobs, encouraging tourism etc. After one generation the IOK Kashmiris would have somewhat relented and softened their attitude towards India.
In the next 25 years, more of the same. India should have upped the ante - more investment, more industry, more jobs, more prosperity. After 2 generations, 50 years, the tension and the feelings of the people of IOK would have been nearly neutralized. When any population has achieved significant prosperity levels, along with some freedoms, religious fervor takes a back seat. Instead, India went in the reverse direction. The great Indian empires of the distanced past, were based on such an appeasement strategy. The great Hindu strategist Kautilya (also known as Chanakya) was the philosophical architect of these empires. Unfortunately, since independence in 1947, India has not produced any cool minded, dispassionate, strategic thinkers. So, currently, they end up with Narendra Modi, a former Tea Boy, committed to hate, violence and ethnic cleansing.
The response of the Indian government on 5th August was a knee-jerk reaction. It was perhaps one of the unintended consequences of IK's meeting with Donald Trump. IK's visit to the US was a triumph for Pakistan. The last such achievement was when President Ayub Khan was hosted by JFK. JFK described Ayub as the "De Gaulle of Asia". The personal chemistry between IK and Trump was good. The 'Deep State' of the US had comprehensively briefed Trump on IK. They had told Trump that IK was a leader that the US could do business with. Trump's withdrawal strategy from Afghanistan before the 2020 elections could not be achieved without IK and the Pak Army (General Bajwa) being on board. Trump was also told that IK was a true nationalist and would not 'sell out' Pakistan at any cost. Trump was all ears. Trump's comment on mediation on Kashmir, although not the centerpiece of discussion, had one unintended consequence:
The two main opposition parties, PPP and PML-N were hugely disappointed. They went into a panic mode. With their leaders incarcerated, and more to follow, they were looking to the US as a "rescue of last resort". Their hopes were shattered. Now they, both PPP and PML-N, are hoping for an event that will massively destabilize the government and the region, so that the public focus can shift away from their shenanigans. This happened on 5 August Need I say more?
So, Pakistan and India are eyeball to eyeball. If you observe IK at a public event, you will always see a man in a dark suit, dark eyeglasses, carrying a briefcase. This case does not carry IK's love letters, although there are many. It carries the nuclear code. When the high command makes the ultimate decision, the briefcase will be unlocked. IK will punch in just 6 letters - L-A-U-N-C-H. Then press the transmit button. There is no recall option. In a nuclear exchange, it is estimated that 200 million people will die, on both sides. Not a big deal. Wars and revolutions come at the cost of human lives. Chairman Mao is responsible for the death of 60 million people in his various social engineering projects (The Great Leap Forward, Let a 1000 Flowers Bloom).
In WWII when Hitler opened the Northern Eastern (the worst decision in military history) the Russians defended the Fatherland (some countries call it the Motherland). At a meeting in the Kremlin a Lt. General pointed out to Stalin that 20 million soldiers had already died. Stalin smiled and replied "The figure is closer to 30 million, and rising". Then Stalin lifted his glass of Vodka and downed it in one gulp. The grandson of the above mentioned Lt. General was based in Karachi for a few years. He and I often met to discuss geo politics and the finer delicacies of life. God forbid, if a nuclear exchange occurs, the advanced countries, the G-5, or the G-20, etc. would not be overly interested. '200 million South Asians dead' is not an earth shaking news. Their only concern would be the radio-active cloud so generated. Will the wind blow it East, or West, or North?
(To be continued)
(The writer is the former Executive Director of the Management Association of Pakistan)
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