Futures: Dow flat, S&P down 0.06%, Nasdaq off 0.18%
Retail sales are estimated to rise 1.1% in January, helped by the disbursal of another round of pandemic relief checks to households at the beginning of the month.
The scenarios also envision a global recession where US unemployment jumps to 10.75%, economic growth falls by 4%, and the stock market sheds 55% of its value.
The banking sector has provided critical support to the economic recovery over the past year.
After a catastrophic spell when economic conditions were so confounded by the coronavirus that the Fed stopped making projections altogether, US central bankers now like what they see.
We have a trillion (dollars) in excess savings. We have checks coming in the mailbox. There will be enough demand" from consumers to keep the recovery on track.
Market participants now await the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's last policy meeting due on Wednesday, with expectations policy will remain accommodative as the economy attempts a rebound.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.5%, with eyes on flash PMIs for December due in the morning session. Expectations are for a slight improvement in business activity over the previous month.
"If the coal issue with China is resolved early in the new year, it would relax the market in relation to other commodities that are exported to China," Smoling added.